Portale di Ateneo - En.Unibs.it

The lessons will deal with the following topics:
• Modelling and simulation of complex dynamic systems
Introduction to modelling techniques.
Simulation models and scenarios.
Forecast models.
• Non linear systems analysis
Equilibrium points.
Stability analysis (linearization and Liapunov functions).
Structural stability analysis (attractors, bifurcations, catastrophes).
• Models identification and simulation
Estimators performance evaluation
Least squares identification for linear models.
Uncertainty evaluation.
Regression models.
• Forecast stochastic models identification and validation
Discrete time series analysis.
ARX models identification.
Cyclo-stationary and non linear ARX models identification.
Forecast model validation.
• Decision support systems
Integration of simulation and forecast models in a decision support system.